Wednesday, September 25

In the Last Year, this Trading Strategy Outperformed the S&P 500

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Friday was the last trading day of April and Chevron (CVX) is no longer the top stock of the S&P 100 going into May. On April 1st, I bought six CVX shares for $164.15 each, totaling $984.87 and had $149.6 in cash leftover. 

I sold the six shares for $157.27 each for a total of $943.59 on Friday. Along with the cash balance, I now have a grand total of $1,093.19 in cash. I started testing with $1,001.66 so this strategy has returned 9.1 percent over the last year. See the table below for a summary of each month’s ending balance and return.

For comparison, the S&P 500 exchange traded fund SPY has returned only 0.2 percent over the last year. 2022 has been marked with volatility and the S&P 500 is actually in correction now due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and Federal Reserve monetary tightening. The SPY ETF has been less volatile or in other words, less risky, but it has also returned a lot less than the stock picks provided by the strategy. This is illustrated by the following graph.

The balance from the strategy is shown in blue and the balance from the SPY is shown in orange.

For a recap of this trading/stock picking strategy, please see Tweaking, Trading and Testing Tim’s Strategy.

The New Top Stock for the First Month of the Second Year

Not surprisingly, Chevron, a large, integrated oil company, has been replaced by another large, integrated oil company, Exxon Mobil Corp. Currently, three of the top five stocks in the S&P 100 are oil companies. They produce commodities which are smoking hot right now, given strong demand and limited supply.

Today, I will buy twelve shares of Exxon Mobil (XOM) which closed Friday at $85.25. Check back in a month to find out if Exxon Mobil is still the top stock.

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