Wednesday, September 25

Nvidia’s Amazing Run has Ended

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In August, I started my Nvidia position with 10 shares totaling $4,633.70 in stock. $356.30 in cash was maintained equaling a grand total of $5,000. Yesterday (10/31/23) the shares closed at $406.90 for a total value of $4,069. Combined with the $356.30 cash, the trade is worth $4,425.30 as October ends. So the strategy has lost 11.5 percent in the last three months.

The benchmark S&P 500 exchange-traded index fund, SPY, has returned negative 1.8 percent in the last three months. This includes a dividend that was paid just yesterday. Obviously, holding a single stock is riskier than holding the S&P 500 and these results prove that again.

No Longer on Top

Nvidia has been the top stock for 7 of the last 8 months thanks to it’s artificial intelligence computer chips and explosive earnings growth. Now macroeconomic forces, primarily rising interest rates and a slowing economy, have taken a toll.

Over the last 6 months, software maker Adobe Inc. (ADBE) has returned 42 percent, barely edging out Nvidia’s 41 percent. It came down to the wire, and on Monday (10/30/23) Nvidia was winning 43 to 41. But yesterday, Nvidia’s shares were down 0.93% while Adobe’s moved up 0.97%. So I cashed out at $406.90 and will use the $4,425.30 to buy eight shares of ADBE which closed at $532.06 yesterday. Check back in 30 days for an update.

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